Morgan Stanley’s Top 50 Watch Brands for 2024, Rolex Still by far the Market Leader

Like yearly and for now eight consecutive instances, Swiss watch business consultancy agency LuxeConsult and monetary establishment Morgan Stanley have labored collectively to deliver their annual report of the Swiss watch industry, and the estimated revenues of the highest 50 manufacturers. While the 2023 report showed records for the market, it additionally indicated the potential slow-down of gross sales for 2024, with macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds and demand uncertainties within the US, Europe and largely China. Nicely, not solely this has been confirmed by the export statistics for the past years, however the brand new annual report of Morgan Stanley makes certain that each one know that the watch business isn’t at its greatest anymore – properly, there are exceptions to this rule, because the hegemony of Rolex continues to be undisputed. Some manufacturers, however, have had and can have troublesome instances forward.

As we’ve seen, based on the Swiss Federation of the Watch Industry (FHS), exports of Swiss watches in 2024 had been down 3%, one thing you would see as a consolidation after record years in 2022 and 2023, or possibly the start of a recession for the complete business. Whereas the FHS give a large picture of the complete business, the yearly report performed by Oliver Müller/LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley – recognized to be fairly correct and well-researched – brings a extra detailed picture per model and phase. However as a complete, first, “the market contracted in 2024, after three years of a post-Covid rebound” signifies the report. What strikes most, nonetheless, is the polarization of the market, with the large gamers hardly struggling and even persevering with to develop, whereas a number of second-tier manufacturers reported robust decline in gross sales – “the most important manufacturers usually gaining additional market share (a growth frequent to just about all sub-segments of the luxurious items sector),” says the report. It is usually clear that the higher-end phase of the market is performing higher than the mid-range and low-end markers, as “watches with a retail price ticket exceeding CHF 50,000 accounted for 33.5% of the whole worth of Swiss watch exports however for a formidable 84% of the expansion in 2024.”

Beneath, for the sake of comparability, the highest 50 manufacturers in 2023 and 2024.

As we are able to see from these charts, there are clear winners (solely 11 manufacturers out of fifty with estimated development) and plenty of manufacturers impacted by the slow-down of the luxurious market. First, not solely the mixed estimated turnover of the highest 50 manufacturers has contracted over the course of 2024 – from 36,127 billion CHF to 35,258 billion CHF – however what impresses is the variety of items bought, which strikes from near 16 million items to now a tad over 13 million items. This means that the typical worth of the watches has grown drastically over the 12 months.

Now if we glance intimately, Morgan Stanley’s report confirms a development it already evoked previously; polarization. We are able to see that the main privately owned manufacturers (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille) are nonetheless rising on this difficult atmosphere, whereas all three listed teams misplaced market share – LVMH and Richemont, however largely the Swatch Group, which reported sales down 14.6% in 2024, are reporting a decline of (estimated) gross sales. Then again, Rolex continues to be the most important watch model by some margin, with an estimated turnover breaking the ten.5 billion CHF barrier (an extra 500 million CHF in comparison with 2023).

The so-called “Large 4” (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille) are “capturing a formidable aggregated 47% market share. The acceleration of the long-term development for the 4 largest privately owned Swiss watch manufacturers (is demonstrated by) a really spectacular enhance of +1,020 bps from 36.8%” in comparison with 2019,” based on the report. Rolex, although its development is much less drastic than in 2023, “additional expanded its dominant place (…), no different luxurious model can declare such a dominant place in its respective sector.” The identical can’t be stated about its sister model Tudor, dropping traction and recording a troublesome 12 months based on Morgan Stanley’s estimates.

The second on the rostrum, Cartier (owned by Richemont), consolidated its place and the report signifies an analogous development for jewellers/watchmakers, as “manufacturers Cartier, Bulgari and Van Cleef carried out the most effective, gaining market share.” Omega, which closes the rostrum, follows the development of the Swatch Group (but in much less dramatic proportions than some sister manufacturers). As different necessary tendencies, LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley point out that bigger unbiased watchmakers/manufacturers continued to develop in 2024, after a spectacular rise within the earlier years – that is true for FP Journe, H. Moser & Cie or MB&F, which has simply entered the report.

Nonetheless, the focus of the market is plain, with now “4 teams accounting for over three-quarters of the Swiss watch business’s gross sales,” specifically Swatch, Rolex group (the model Rolex alone accounts for 32% of the market), Richemont and Patek Philippe, whereas LVMH is now positioned fifth with a market share of slightly below 6%.

For extra particulars, go to Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult. All numbers listed above are estimates from LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley Analysis and weren’t supplied immediately by the manufacturers.